Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Techquilla Sho(r)ts: Talk to the hand!!!

And so the eventually inevitable but highly-improbable became possible. 

As soon as rumors about Apple working on an iWatch broke out late last year, suddenly everyone made a beeline for a moi-aussi product with the same fervour as the current ruling political party in India working on passing 'psuedo-development' bills in the Parliament each day to salvage it's insufferable pride with hopeless deceit.

Arguably, Sony SmartWatch2 was the first out of the gates (they launched a v1.0 last year which many didn't notice), but the flood gates well-and-truly opened last week when Samsung Galaxy Gear and Qualcomm Toq announced their wares.  You can catch a quick comparison here.  Oui oui, I haven't forgotten about the Pebble and Motorola's MOTOACTV which may be arguably the first-gen smart-watches. While each of these announcements is a significant step towards the rapidly-approaching 'wearable computing' era (err... that means we are way past the post-PC era, no?), the current iterations aren't anything worth writing home about.  I will save the analysis for some other day.  

Fun possibility: what if this was Apple's idea of 'buzzinga' to the world.  Till then, let's gear up (pun intended) to see people on the street talking to their / other people's hands.
       
If you thought Google Glass was dorky enough, imagine people talking to their wrists... Now that's SMART LOL done right  :)

Image courtesy: http://images.wikia.com/clonewarsadventurescharacter/images/7/75/Iron-man-meme.jpg 

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Why 'commoditization' and 'productisation' of social video is nigh impossible

And why Vine and Instagram Video are on course for epic obscurity...


On our recent vacation trip, upon seeing me take photographs of whimsical proportions (click click click...), APS confronted me as to why don't I shoot videos from our Canon 550D.  It was a good proposal, since these days most cameras will record 1080p video at 30fps.  Throw in optical image stabilization chops, and you've got a potential winner, ain't it?
If photography is painstaking calligraphy, video is the gay abandon of broad-brushing a canvas.
Here's a product manager's perspective of why treating video as a commodity is tough when compared to still photography.      

FLY IN THE OINTMENT #UNO - PICS ARE ABOUT CAPTURING THE MOMENT, VIDS ARE ABOUT CREATING ONE (OR MANY):

This alone is perhaps the most critical aspect of my larger argument.  With photographs, owing to their inherent nature of static objects (nothing moves, unless you're seeing a GIF), embellishing it with a handful of design filters and layers is easy.  Just look at Instagram's mushrooming photo service (thereby distinguishing it from it's recently-announced video service - more on this later).  All of a sudden, that guy you know who couldn't click for his life now suddenly has an enthralling collection of photographs (selfies, please excuse) on his Instagram feed.  These days, nothing is cooler than Instagram-ming your food, pets and flowers.  Guess what, video isn't so forgiving.  There is a ton of post-production processing that goes into typical video feeds that you see on YouTube, even the simplest of'em.  That's the stuff of pros and takes a long time and lots of complex software tools.  'nuff said.     

The earth hasn't become more beautiful, neither have the earthlings become more artistic - though Instagram would like to make you believe otherwise. 
FLY IN THE OINTMENT #DOS - BIG DATA (NOT THAT ONE, I MEANT LITERALLY BIG DATA):
Arguably, most camera sensors on our point-and-shoots and DSLRs are only getting better at capturing image quality and detail.  Goes without saying that video shot from these devices is data-heavy and poses 2 basic constraints - firstly of storage size for such immense data files, and secondly of data bandwidth to upload and share.  Samsung is trying to tackle these constraints through it's Galaxy range of high-end point-and-shoot camera, but that's for a different day.                

FLY IN THE OINTMENT #TRES - USER-GENERATED SOCIAL VIDEO SHARING THROUGH THE MOBILE IS TAKING OFF:
Yes, but as explained in point #uno, post-production on mobile is kind of tough right now. Neither do we have such high computational power onboard these power-sipping processors, nor do we have the adequate software to manage this.  Sure, Apple, Samsung and most notably, Nokia, are taking giant steps in this direction.  But I'd say we're still ages away from the day when all post-processing would happen natively. 
Ok, so the million $$ question - what happens to Vine and Instagram Video???
This is where the productisation dilemma strikes.  How do you create a strong and sustainable usage case out of something which is so difficult to produce and easy to botch up?  How do you ensure it doesn't turn into a gigantic mass of badly-shot video clips with poor audio and dull lighting conditions?  And how do you monetize this?  Google's YouTube division is yet to answer this question. Will advertisers come?  Will users stay and proliferate? 

As innovative as the idea of shooting a few seconds of video of your dog running in circles chasing it's tail might sound, Vine wasn't the first vendor to come up with this concept. 12 Seconds and many others during their time came up with the idea of community-based video sharing and had to shut shop eventually due to some of the challenges I highlighted above.  At this point, I am struggling to form my faith in Vine's business model and am very clear that Instagram's intent behind launching Instagram Video was purely defensive rather than trying to gain / grow market-share from Vine.  Why - because nobody has a clue as to how to create something that isn't crap from social video sharing on mobile.  
You may ask yourself what Vine was 18 months down the line - and you shall be excused.  
In the meanwhile, I shall continue to click, click, click...

P.S.: Grammatically-speaking, 'productisation' as a word doesn't exist, but then I never assumed responsibility for your grammar, did I?

Image credit: http://rack.1.mshcdn.com/media/ZgkyMDEzLzA2LzI3LzIzL3ZpbmVpbnN0YWdyLmVmNWQ2LmpwZwpwCXRodW1iCTk1MHg1MzQjCmUJanBn/9282fd37/7af/vine-instagram-video.jpg         

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Err... technical glitches with new template migrations

Sorted :)   (updated on 17th July).

Downright annoying, I know.  Oh well, guess one can't have everything in life all the while.  Was having some rendering issues with the past template, hence I thought it'd be nice to move to a fresher look.  Absolutely love the new template - jet black in the background puts a clear emphasis on the content, while colorful streaks lend a subtle tinge of vibrancy.  

As with all things new, looks like it's screwed up with my customization of previous posts (since they were in a different template).  Some of the older posts seem to be rendering text in white background thus making it invisible to the naked eye.  But hey, thou shalt not fret!!!  Rest assured I'm working on getting this sorted out.  



In the meantime, here's a pro-tip for these troublesome posts - press 'Ctrl' + 'A' and see the magic unravel (nudge nudge... wink wink).



Image source: http://blogs.technet.com/b/tarpara/archive/2007/09/04/vista-desktop-search-annoyance.aspx

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

You can watch Google I/O 2013 (annual developer conference) LIVE HERE!!!

If you salivate at the following word cloud, then the only place to be today izzz the video link that follows (scroll down).  




I've placed a live feed link of Google's annual developer conference stream coming live from the Moscone Center, San Francisco.  Mind you, the keynote this year is pretty long this time - 3 hours, so tracking the boatload of new announcements which El Google is expected to make could be tedious.  Hey, guess what, with the link below, you can now track all the announcements, product launches...



...all in real-time, baby!!!    




Sunday, May 12, 2013

A preface to Amazon's tryst with 3D

And why I think Amazon should go the Facebook way rather than Apple / Samsung way. 


Hmm (link)...  surprising.   

THE DISAPPOINTMENT THAT IS 3D
3D in smartphones was a potentially-compelling value proposition back in 2010 (as it was in TVs around that period).  The widely-accepted failure of 3D across electronic appliances so far has taught us an important lesson - there isn't anything remotely-exciting in 3D apart from the fact that it sounds 'cool'.  LG came up with a similar no-glasses-required 3D smartphone last year (or it could be late 2011, not sure).  I happened to check it out at one of the retail stores - the display was pretty disappointing and there just wasn't enough justification for the price of a 3D panel.  The narrative is similar in televisions and PCs too.  Mind you - this is a personal opinion - 3D overall has been very disappointing.

Say what you will, customers don't care about how a new technology works.  What do they care about - does it improve the current UX narrative.  That's all that matters in the end. 

TABLETS WERE ALWAYS CORE ENABLERS TO AMAZON'S KEY BIZ MODEL.  ARE SMARTPHONES IN THE SAME LEAGUE FOR BEZOS & CO.? 

This isn't the first time Amazon's name has shown up in the smartphone game (back in 2010).  Am really surprised Amazon is looking to get into this dog-eat-dog industry.  Tablets make sense to their core business model - make money on services in the long term on cheap hardware rather than upfront on expensive hardware (the latter is what players like Samsung, Nokia, RIM, HTC do).  Remember Amazon sells its Kindle products at almost cost and gets recurring lifetime rev$ through their content ecosystem of books, shopping, music, etc.  I articulate here a similar (albeit opposite) strategic shift which Microsoft tried to employ for its Surface hardware, but to their chagrin, that doesn't seem to go anywhere.  Also, tablets are much more content-consumption friendly when compared to smartphones - would you prefer to read a book on a 7-9" display or a cramped 4'4.5" display?  Your pick.  Additionally, when they launched their Kindle tablet, we didn't have a podium finish yet - iPads were ruling, and then Samsung was selling some tablets.  Windows 8 wasn't around, and HP was floundering with its webOS strategy.  Relatively easy pickings in the offing as far as tablets were concerned.

NO SUCCESS SYNERGIES GUARANTEED IN THIS MARKET  
Winning the smartphone game is an altogether different proposition.  The podium is crowded here - Samsung, Apple, Windows Phone 8 vendors (Nokia mostly) and then you have Blackberry and HTC biting off the crumbs.  Begs the question what could be Amazon's line of thinking with the smartphone line (if the news is true).  The only analogy which comes to my mind is what Apple did (and still does very successfully) with its iPod Touch and iPhone / iPad strategy.  

iPod Touch, being a low-entry device (when compared to other iDevices) becomes your first affordable Apple purchase and more often than not, sucks you in Apple's content ecosystem (apps, songs, movies, etc.) - try keeping a global perspective here and not necessarily how Apple buying behavior occurs in your country of residence.  Guess who are the most avid buyers of the iPod Touch - very young kids (school-going children mostly).  As soon as they're ready to get into college and able to afford a cellular plan, more often than not, they tend to go for an iPhone as their first cellular device, since 1) they're already married into the ecosystem 2) Apple's marketing juggernaut will market the crap out of this installed base (i.e. in marketing terms, up-selling).  As this segment graduates further, it becomes easier to sell them more expensive Apple h/w - iPad, MacBook, etc...

iPod Touch - Apple's best tactical product category till date.

BOTTOM-FEEDER
So in effect, iPod Touch acts as a 'flanking' entry strategy to Apple's iPhone and iPad devices.  Now carryover the same analogy to Amazon - cheap e-readers, cheap $200 tablet already exist and have a good installed base.  It becomes relatively easier for them to sell a smartphone with an aggressive data plan to this audience (i.e. Holiday shoppers mostly).  I don't see Amazon going after the mid-to-high-end smartphone buyers, because Apple and Samsung are making a killing here.  Amazon will find it tough convince Android smartphone users (assuming it'll be going with Android as the underlying mobile OS for it's supposed smartphone) that it can offer a differentiated (forget superior) Android UX.  I know people will point out at Amazon's 3.7% tablet market share per IDC's 1Q'13 tablet market share report.  Deeper number crunching will tell you that most Kindles sold were during the first year, after which their sales momentum has tapered off. 

The beauty of an ultra-competitive market is that competitive threats are perpetual. Boom - Google Nexus 7 and Apple iPad Mini, Kindle Fire's nemesis.


Refer to the interactive chart above to understand how successive Holiday seasons have seen waning sales for Amazon tablets (feel free to hover over the graphs to understand the numbers better).  Y-axis refers to the % of tablet shipments (sourced from IDC) by vendors cutting across the past 8 rolling quarters which are shown on the X-axis.    

BUSINESS MODEL MORE AKIN TO FACEBOOK THAN APPLE
This is where I find Amazon's justification a little bit weak in going after the smartphone market, that too with 3D as a supposed differentiating feature.  The 'flank' leverage which Apple enjoys doesn't necessarily hold for Amazon anymore.  Sure, they have arguably the best content ecosystem in the market right now - even better than iTunes.  Once you start the ecosystem debate, that's when Amazon starts looking more like Facebook than Apple / Samsung.  Here's how.

If you've observed Facebook evolving over the past 3-4 years, you'll immediately notice how it has stopped trying to be a pure play 'find-a-friend' destination and become more of a 'here are 100 other things to spend your time on Facebook' destination - i.e. news feeds, games, videos, music, maps and most recently, gifts.  The more time you spend on Facebook, the more money Zuck and his hoody-cladding team makes by selling targeted ads.  Over a period of time, this ecosystem becomes 'the internet' for most users (think: average Joe on the street).  The ecosystems pushes relevant and consumable content to it's users, who in turn send valuable data back to the ecosystem servers, enabling them to push more relevant content.  It's a vicious circle.  In a lot of ways, this is pretty much how Amazon has evolved too - think about it.  

Today, above and beyond the best-in-class online shopping portal, they have Prime Instant Video which offers on-demand content from leading content providers such as CBS, FX, Travel Channel, etc.  You also have Amazon Studios, Amazon's venture to create original content for movies and series.  Think Amazon is ignoring the enterprise market?  AWS (their web services division) announced Redshift service which offers full-scale managed warehousing services at highly competitive prices as compared to a traditional data warehouse.  It is doing tonnes more - AWS OpsWorksAmazon Elastic TranscoderAWS CloudHSM...                 

Amazon tends to 'behave' more like Facebook.  Facebook wanted to be on all phones, and they are - sans the h/w pressure.  I think THAT's a good biz model for Amazon to follow.

Right then, where do we go from here?  All we know about Amazon's grand plan is just a rumor, which may stay likewise.  It's during these times that one tends to look at the management conviction in a particular strategy.  Bezos is a tech-maverick and isn't afraid to take risks - he manages quite a few big ventures outside the industry too.  Neither is he afraid of taking on giants - remember the Kindle Fire launch event?  It'll be interesting to know what he's thinking with this one though.  

And please, no 3D for Chrissakes!!!



Thursday, May 9, 2013

Techquilla Sho(r)ts: Developers going insane in the app economy!!!


Aight, thought I'll try something new - so taking a shot at infographics.  What better topic to pick up than the much-awaited developer conferences of Google and Apple.  

Tell you what, this is pure insanity when you look at how these numbers have evolved over the past 3-4 years.  Sell-out in less than 2 mins for WWDC 2013; under 50 mins for I/O 2013!!!  For further clarity of understanding, x-axis represents the subsequent years since 2009 when the world started warming up to the idea of 3rd party app development.  y-axis refers to the amount of time (in hours) taken to sell-out these events.  Rest should be self explanatory, I guess...    

Interesting inference: Apple has conventionally been more popular with the developers, but El Google is catching up fast.